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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 15, 2014 9:36:46 GMT -6
I've done some research on B777 and the Malaysian flight. If he traveled NE for about an hour, he would have covered about 393 miles. Based on later information, he turned NW and climbed to 45000 feet to kill the passengers. They only have oxygen for about 10 minutes then hyperoxia sets in. He then descended to 23,000 feet and headed NW to Great Coco Island where there is a 4330 foot runway. Total flight time at 400 Knots is 3 hours. Total distance is 1106.02 nautical miles. If the experts are correct and there was no catastrophic destruction of the bird, then that is the only spot it could have flown, without being detected. If he was a smart pilot, he would have dived to the deck, staying under radar and flown to the island airport. He could have removed the bodies, and taken off in any direction at low altitude. By the time experts had figured out that he had not exploded over the Gulf of Thailand, he was long gone from Coco Island. Here is some information on the airport:
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Post by steel selachian on Mar 15, 2014 16:43:57 GMT -6
Just to ask, is there a possibility the climb to 45,000 was for another reason, or would that have definitively killed the passengers no matter what? Kind of a grim thought.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 15, 2014 17:32:06 GMT -6
Just to ask, is there a possibility the climb to 45,000 was for another reason, or would that have definitively killed the passengers no matter what? Kind of a grim thought. The ceiling for the B777 is 43,000 feet. The on-board oxygen for passengers is limited to 10-15 minutes to give the pilot time to dive to below 14,000 feet. I don't know of any reason other than that, to climb to that altitude. If he was avoiding radar, he would have dived to the deck and flown under it. So, we can only assume that he did it, to incapacitate the passengers.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that at low altitude the plane will use much more fuel and will only have a range of about 800 miles so he would not have flown down there for long. He could have landed and changed the code on his IFF then taken off again. I doubt it, but it is a possibility.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 16, 2014 8:14:51 GMT -6
One more point about the climb to altitude. Jet's operate more efficiently at higher altitudes due to the Breguet formula. However, when they reach the tropopause, and head into the stratisphere, that changes. Temperature in those two regions does not change with altitude, so there is no real reason to fly higher than about 33,000 to 35,000 feet. The tropopause changes with location on the earth, at the poles its about 30,000 feet but at the equator, 56,000 feet. In regards to the Malaysian airliner, climbing to higher altitude to gain speed, would have made no sense, since he was already at the edge of the tropopause and he would gain no more speed. With the curvature of the earth, it would be better to trade fuel range for detectability. Radar waves move in straight lines so at 200 miles the earth curves away. This gives us even more reasons to use altitude to eliminate the passengers.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 17, 2014 9:21:51 GMT -6
On the 15th of March I wrote this: " If the experts are correct and there was no catastrophic destruction of the bird, then that is the only spot it could have flown (referring to Great Cocos Island), without being detected. If he was a smart pilot, he would have dived to the deck, staying under radar and flown to the island airport." News reports this morning, state that this theory, flying low to avoid radar, is probably how he avoided detection. I can't believe that our aviation experts couldn't or didn't figure that out earlier in the week. Which way would he turn? If he was trying to avoid radar, then he would fly nap-of-earth and probably head north on the western side of the mountains on the western edge of Myanmar. At low altitude, as I have stated, he would have a 60% reduced flying time so he could not fly out to sea, unless he had a prearranged landing point in the water, with a boat waiting. I believe he flew north and we don't have good relations with Myanmar(Burma) so the US can really fly over it. He flew north, landed and dumped the bodies or gave the plane to those who paid him, and left the area.
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Post by sirchaos on Mar 17, 2014 10:20:03 GMT -6
Maybe it´s less "couldn´t or didn´t figure that out" and more "decided not to make their conclusion public in order to avoid tipping off the guilty party"? This is not an accident investigation, this is a criminal case.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 17, 2014 11:07:57 GMT -6
Maybe it´s less "couldn´t or didn´t figure that out" and more "decided not to make their conclusion public in order to avoid tipping off the guilty party"? This is not an accident investigation, this is a criminal case. I totally agree and that was the point. It has been my belief that the US knows where that plane is or was and maybe developing a strike or SEAL operation to either destroy the plane and/or retrieve the passengers. I unfortunately strongly believe that they are dead, so there is no hurry. The US maybe furnishing intell and Chinese might be setting up a covert operation to find the plane. Hard to know. |
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Post by sirchaos on Mar 17, 2014 16:26:09 GMT -6
The whole thing doesn´t make sense, though. There´s got to be an easier way to steal an airliner... one that doesn´t involve committing 200+ counts of murder and thereby making sure that several major nations which have the death penalty (and, as you note, special operations teams) are out for your blood.
And an airliner isn´t exactly a car where you can exchange the license plates, slap on a new paint job, and sell it to someone. It isn´t going to be easy for the next months, perhaps years, to sell (or operate) an airliner of that type if you can´t prove exactly where you legally acquired it.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 17, 2014 16:35:45 GMT -6
The whole thing doesn´t make sense, though. There´s got to be an easier way to steal an airliner... one that doesn´t involve committing 200+ counts of murder and thereby making sure that several major nations which have the death penalty (and, as you note, special operations teams) are out for your blood. And an airliner isn´t exactly a car where you can exchange the license plates, slap on a new paint job, and sell it to someone. It isn´t going to be easy for the next months, perhaps years, to sell (or operate) an airliner of that type if you can´t prove exactly where you legally acquired it. Sometimes, during the hunt for the aircraft and investigation, it doesn't make any sense. But once you find the bird and the culprits, it ties together. Until the fumes in the tanks of Boeing 747 Flight 800 issue and spark from the wiring in the tank had been discovered and tested, nothing made any sense, including people who thought they saw a missile headed up to it. They did not and the real explanation was perfectly logical, but it does take time. As to the issue of the aircraft itself, you could sell it to almost anyone, who wants the technology cheap and wants to counter it for illegal purposes, you could sell it for parts and make a bundle or sell it to terrorists for use as a weapon. Lot's of good uses for such a bird. It wouldn't be difficult to change the paint job, remove name plates and serial numbers from the engines, electronics and such. Not a real difficult problem, actually.
UPDATE: I just finished an article dated in March 2013 about a dearth of aftermarket parts for the B777. Here is a quote:
In 2006, the nineteenth B777 was headed to the breakers yard, just 11 years after entering service. It was used for parts because the plane was worth more in parts, than whole, flying.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 17, 2014 20:17:55 GMT -6
This current Malaysian Airliner story reminds me of a quote from Sherlock Holmes to Dr. Watson: "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
Is it probable, that this was designed to discredit the ruling party in Malaysia, one day after the opposition party leader was sentenced to prison? If we follow the trail of deception by the Malaysian government, failures to examine the pilots, lack of creditable surveillance information and more, all seem to lead us to that conclusion. Was this an act of revenge to cause China and other nations with many passengers on the manifest, to turn against the Malaysian government? Interesting thought. |
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Post by sirchaos on Mar 18, 2014 10:50:19 GMT -6
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Post by oldpop2000 on Mar 18, 2014 13:08:50 GMT -6
No, the pilot or the co-pilots first order of business is to declare an emergency, after putting on their oxygen masks. Now, while declaring one of them is performing that task, the pilot will turn the plane around and return to the nearest runway. They are not going to leave the cockpit and go fire hunting, in fact with no fire detection system in the nose wheel landing gear well he would have no idea where the fire was located except to look at his fire protection messages. He was only one hour out, probably enough time to turn around and head back, and while at it, slowing down, and lowering the landing gear which would have probably extinguished the fire. However, it would be a process of elimination, with all the other sensors showing negative for fire.
Update: www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/aviation-expert-disputes-missing-jet-cockpit-fire-theory-n56011
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Post by oldpop2000 on Apr 1, 2014 11:22:02 GMT -6
I was watching CNN and they discussed the pingers on the flight data recorders of MH370. If those batteries are not stored in a cool spot, they will deteriorate(just like domestic batteries(hint, hint) and when installed, their active life upon activation in the water will be reduced. This is very true. I used to test and repair emergency radios and beacons for the US Navy. They were hand held radios carried in the upper pocket of flight suits, transmitting on 243.2 MHZ or guard channel and they did put out a signal for tracking purposes. The cylindrical batteries had to be stored in a refrigerator until we installed them for testing, they were returned to the fleet. Once in the fleet, the same procedure had to be followed. The comments on CNN were that the pingers for MH370 and other Malaysian airliners were not stored in cool areas and as you know, Malaysia is near the tropics so it is hot. My take on this is that those pingers probably deteriorated and are now quiet. Most experts say that they will last till Saturday, but confidentially, they know that is not true. Those pingers are quiet.
BTW, despite what is being reported, I still believe that that plane went north at low level, landed and refueled. From there is anybody's guess.
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