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Post by dorn on Aug 26, 2018 10:25:03 GMT -6
Uhm, the tomcat vs hornet issue doesn't apply to Australia. The hornet/frog is good enough for its defense purpose. Raptor is great but expensive and lack AG. That is unless Australia wants to invest in certain global expansion ambition. Japan however does appear to need a dedicated air dominance aircraft. The F-15J flew for many years and no longer enjoys the edge. 10 years ago it asked for the F-22 and was declined. Today it might be time to re-evaluate it. www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence-lockheed-exclusive/exclusive-lockheed-martin-to-propose-stealthy-hybrid-of-f-22-and-f-35-for-japan-sources-idUSKBN1HR0MMThe real reason behind the current US-China clash is ideological, which is democracy vs a totalitarian regime with the 2nd largest economy. Unless major changes happen within the Chinese communist party leadership, or the CCP steps down from power, the common consensus many logical analysis points the world towards cold war version 1.5. I think the Japanese could buy F-35's and satisfy their requirements very well, so could Australia. As to China, economic dependency for both the US and China will stop any military conflict. This was the reason that the European nations developed the European Union and European Central Bank to prevent wars between nations because of common economic dependency. China is not stupid and will not bite the hand that feeds them. If NK causes problems, they will deal with it themselves to keep peace. I think you are completely right. If you just compare population of China and USA is a matter of time where Chinese economy will be much larger. Chinese technology in several areas are on top and is matter of time when it happens that ti will be on most areas. So question arises. Where can any nation expand? You can do it by your foreign policy backed by your military force but is not much easier expand where no one has gone before? :-) So obvious answer is space. For this reason Chinese put a lot of efforts into space. Main advantage of USA and western countries that there are not in the first step (costly space technology being finance primary by government) but their have already involved into the second step, when large corporation is focused for space as it is worth it. This is great advantage as it is not limited by the will of politicians, space technology grew out of government dominance. So we can get to point, it seems that today is dangerous days related to start of 90s. However I do not think so as always there will be foreign policy but main thrust is being somewhere else, so military only helps foreign policy in reality it is not so important. See Russians their were able developed quite sophisticated military technology but they decided not to build it as they have not finance and realize that it can have no value for them. Against countries they are involved such advanced technology is not costs effective.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Aug 26, 2018 11:00:48 GMT -6
I think the Japanese could buy F-35's and satisfy their requirements very well, so could Australia. As to China, economic dependency for both the US and China will stop any military conflict. This was the reason that the European nations developed the European Union and European Central Bank to prevent wars between nations because of common economic dependency. China is not stupid and will not bite the hand that feeds them. If NK causes problems, they will deal with it themselves to keep peace. I think you are completely right. If you just compare population of China and USA is a matter of time where Chinese economy will be much larger. Chinese technology in several areas are on top and is matter of time when it happens that ti will be on most areas. So question arises. Where can any nation expand? You can do it by your foreign policy backed by your military force but is not much easier expand where no one has gone before? :-) So obvious answer is space. For this reason Chinese put a lot of efforts into space. Main advantage of USA and western countries that there are not in the first step (costly space technology being finance primary by government) but their have already involved into the second step, when large corporation is focused for space as it is worth it. This is great advantage as it is not limited by the will of politicians, space technology grew out of government dominance. So we can get to point, it seems that today is dangerous days related to start of 90s. However I do not think so as always there will be foreign policy but main thrust is being somewhere else, so military only helps foreign policy in reality it is not so important. See Russians their were able developed quite sophisticated military technology but they decided not to build it as they have not finance and realize that it can have no value for them. Against countries they are involved such advanced technology is not costs effective. I believe that globalization, which began at the start of the 20th century, has progressed to the point that wars make no economic sense. The problem with that idea is that the revolutionist have no interest in economics, just imposing their way of living. I believe that the answer for many regions is to combine economically, have one central bank one currency and no trade barriers. This is exactly what the European's did with the EU, ECB and Euro. It doesn't preclude wars but it makes them almost useless. The problem with China is that it is a dictatorship of the Proletariat. . Essentially, one man rule as Karl Marx stated. In this kind of environment, an EU-type regional union of nations will not work. So, I think what needs to happen is the nations surrounding China like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, possibly Indonesia, Thailand, maybe even Vietnam and the Philippines need to restart SEATO or the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization in an economic sense, possibly including Australia and surround China with an thriving economic region of nations. Those nations could put their military power together with the help of the US, and either force China to change, or cut her off from her possible export markets. Wars will not solve the issue, they haven't in the past. Here is a link to some article at Rand Corporation on this very subject - www.rand.org/topics/china.html
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2018 12:19:38 GMT -6
If you just compare population of China and USA is a matter of time where Chinese economy will be much larger. Chinese economic power is exactly due to a large population base. If we look at per capita: US $59,532, China $8,827, Russia $10,743. Oh and world average $10,714. How is such a country having a strong economy. It is not innovative nor efficient. It is largely hand-me-downs (other than a few areas backed with strong national capitalism like AI, big data. oh note how did Germany recover quickly from WW1->2, same same national capitalism!), low level manufacture, and copy-paste from the US and other developed nations -- "intellectual theft" as US demands to stop in the trade war dispute. GDP per capita comparisonChinese economy is already slowing down. It should've slowed down from the 2008 financial crisis, but the central bank over-issued currency which stimulated the economy. But that only delayed the crisis, not deleting it. In recent months China is plagued with issues: Let's start with a vaccine scandal in late July - a lot of vaccine given to kids are fake, toxic and lethal: www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2157162/why-chinas-vaccine-scandal-unlikely-be-its-lastPeer to peer lending default, big wave of investers rush to Beijing for government regulators to take action, then police detains all the investors (bah!) www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-16/panic-roils-china-s-p2p-lenders-as-savers-rush-to-withdraw-cashHuge government debt - they probably won't pay it back, ever: www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt/china-presses-state-lenders-to-curb-local-government-debt-risk-idUSKBN1H614RAdd that to soaring housing rental prices - real estate values are already extremely bubbled. Total real estate value estimated TWICE as the US. Now rental prices are bubbling as well. www.ejinsight.com/20180821-behind-china-s-soaring-home-rental-costs/Now export is killed due to the trade war. (We're no longer to be bothered with cheap low quality goods or Chinese cell phones with security risks.) And the latest trend, nation wide consumption downgrade: www.nytimes.com/2018/08/22/business/china-consumer-downgrade.htmlThe exodus of western companies and investments due to draconian communist regulation and expensive labor costs. - not gonna bother with links Lack of foreign currency reserve ($$ reserve going down) Resulting in: Investers' loss of faith in the public credit system Deaths for small and medium sized companies High unemployment rates Currency deflation (RMB has been in constant over-value due to central bank control) .... The rest is clear. This is an economic crisis waiting to happen. It is not gonna be an over-night crash like it is in free markets, but a slow, long, regression. The government is now out of ways to control it. Yes even a totalitarian one that has all kinds of methods. Ever since Xi took power, China took a sharp left turn both politically and economically. As far as the US is concerned... it still doesn't matter. But when Xi's "China dream" "Strong nation" policies start threatening the US, that is no longer the case. Military build up in SCS Naval base in Djibouti Economic deals with Iran Huge investments in 3rd world countries Attempted assistance to Syria Stronger hails for reunification with Taiwan Numerous spies and intelligence gatherers in the west for stealing tech Purchasing western companies and assets for stealing tech Confucius institutes and news stations for spreading Chinese "soft power" Dumping cheap goods into the US because of national capitalistic over-invest (i.e. steel) .... This has become a problem. Especially when the country itself still has some 1/3 of population below the poverty line and faces staunch income inequality. States ruled by communists - never good ones. I didn't like the US-China honeymoon. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, there was hope that China would eventually become... well, a free democratic country, as the free market system gradually takes hold. But the west failed to see that it wasn't possible. Now Washington finally sees the problem. The containment of Chinese expansion is by an array of means, as noted in the 2019 NDAA. The current US-China trade war is just a start. Will China see its doom? Probably a lot of Chinese will, but not the top leadership, from what I see. Xi Jinping is a Mao-ist who would like to "stick it to the American imperialists". China is a communist totalitarian state, the ultimate goal of its leadership is to remain in power and to continue reining in huge dividends from power, not to satisfy demands or tend to the welfare of its people. - When the people speaks up against the government's directive, they're forcibly shut up, detained, jailed or killed, as the world has seen, repeatedly. I therefore doubt that economic containment by itself is enough. This will further escalate.
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Post by dorn on Aug 26, 2018 13:15:28 GMT -6
If you just compare population of China and USA is a matter of time where Chinese economy will be much larger. Your are completely right but as China is more totalitarian country, China can divert more resources to their goal. Look at USSR, even their economy was much weaker than Western countries they were able hold Cold war for decades. They can even be better in something they think is important till USA decided that this space exploration is national priority. However China is mixed, their system is more efficient that was in USSR. China population is four times higher than USA so even having GDP per capital at half level means total GDP is twice that of USA. Usually totalitarian country has less issue with minimal condition of living acceptable but their population. I do not know the numbers and I think nobody knows however if China have some goal they can put more resources that Western democracies till market allow it or it will be main political goal. It is very similar to powers before WW2. British Empire with all dominions has much higher economical power (even higher when Germany had almost all Europe) but was unable to use it till totalitarian Nazi Germany made it obvious. It was not political feasible to transfer resources from living condition to military force. If China declares space exploration (or exploitation) as main target, Western democracies will have difficulties to be ahead as it is now till it will be declared much more priority. It is just matter of resources diverted to that effort. What I try to say is that totalitarian countries has better opportunity to achieve singl goal than democracies and as China is just big it can use this advantage in some field of interest. Same reason military is not democratic but organization by order. Somebody (political entity) sets up goals and military achieved it best way possible. Same is similar in history in ancient Rome where in time of emergency democracy was substituted to one man power.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2018 13:32:43 GMT -6
^That is exactly the problem. It will continue to expand at the cost of its economy - the welfare of its people. China as a country does not have speed brakes installed on itself to control its leadership's dangerous actions. The policy makers in Washington need to understand this issue - if the US and its allies does not put China's global expansion to a stop, China will not stop itself, even it is plagued by domestic problems.
Looking at USSR... what USSR? It lost the cold war, was a failed state, a failed system, at the cost of hundreds of millions of human lives and entire country lived in poverty and despair for decades.
If you fancy a communist state, I have nothing more to say to you.
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Post by dorn on Aug 26, 2018 15:13:24 GMT -6
^That is exactly the problem. It will continue to expand at the cost of its economy - the welfare of its people. China as a country does not have speed brakes installed on itself to control its leadership's dangerous actions. The policy makers in Washington need to understand this issue - if the US and its allies does not put China's global expansion to a stop, China will not stop itself, even it is plagued by domestic problems. Looking at USSR... what USSR? It lost the cold war, was a failed state, a failed system, at the cost of hundreds of millions of human lives and entire country lived in poverty and despair for decades. If you fancy a communist state, I have nothing more to say to you. I am not fancy of communismus at all, I have just describe how the systems work. There are things we should be aware. Poverty is not so much issue, increase of poverty is. But what is poverty? It is changed through the time. People who live at this condition take it as common as they do not know different way of living. Give them a symbol, the common goal and they will go and sacrifice something. I live in democratic country in Europe and still it is difficult to see how people live in countries wich has GDP per capital 50 % higher than my country. Which China expansion do you like limit? Economical? It is quite difficult for such a large country? Military? Chinise power projection is still limited to their area. USSR and communismus colapsed but by internal decision and external factors did have effects. Why Nothern Korea had not just collapsed?
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Post by oldpop2000 on Aug 26, 2018 19:26:51 GMT -6
Gentlemen: Let's be careful about moving into the political arena in this thread. Big Brother Is Watching Us.
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Post by williammiller on Aug 26, 2018 19:30:38 GMT -6
The recent subject matter has wandered pretty far off topic here, so please stick to the subject thread (and limit political wrangling) or I will have to close the thread...which would be a shame since it so far has been very informative and useful for everyone I think.
Thanks.
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Post by dorn on Aug 27, 2018 0:36:26 GMT -6
I am really sorry for off-topic discussion. Any discussion previously does not mean any offence (please take it as granted), just asking questions and seeking answers.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2018 1:19:12 GMT -6
Oh the problem is too big to get into forum pissing contests. I'm a somewhat Sinophobe and watch closely at these developments. Perhaps the public has yet to be fully aware of political changes at the top unless deliberately watching it. Will be back if there are more updates. There WILL be more updates... It won't be pretty either.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Aug 27, 2018 8:23:37 GMT -6
I am really sorry for off-topic discussion. Any discussion previously does not mean any offence (please take it as granted), just asking questions and seeking answers. I think we all understand. It is difficult to separate politics, economics and social issues from the study of weapons and their procurement.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Aug 31, 2018 7:53:45 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2018 10:05:01 GMT -6
I think future F-35 DAS could have target recognition ability. Just like the onboard CCD camera on the SDB II could identify whether a target is a tank/truck/bridge/building, it's just high enough resolution + ident algorithm + object database + machine learning. Say the DAS sees a flying object at the aircraft's 6 o'clock. It would then be able to identify it as Mig-29. And since the geometries of a Mig-29 is known, it would then calculate how far away the Mig-29 is. And continuous capture would be able to calculate the Mig-29's velocity. So despite the aircraft having no radar scanning behind the 3-9 line it would still be able to "look" back. Ofc the Mig-29 would have to be close enough so its visual reflection is not blurred by atmospheric disruptions. But just like a surveillance camera can use facial shape to ID a human's real identity, this is effectively the same thing and likely much simpler.
In combat this would be the same as a radar lock - if the pilot would like to lob a AIM-9X towards the Mig in the rear, the F-35's fire control system would then be able to present the missile DLZ based on DAS targeting info. A missile DLZ is very helpful in this situation - a missile flying towards the rear will have much less range; it would be very helpful for the pilot to know possible Pk before launch.
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Post by oldpop2000 on Sept 1, 2018 10:37:50 GMT -6
I think future F-35 DAS could have target recognition ability. Just like the onboard CCD camera on the SDB II could identify whether a target is a tank/truck/bridge/building, it's just high enough resolution + ident algorithm + object database + machine learning. Say the DAS sees a flying object at the aircraft's 6 o'clock. It would then be able to identify it as Mig-29. And since the geometries of a Mig-29 is known, it would then calculate how far away the Mig-29 is. And continuous capture would be able to calculate the Mig-29's velocity. So despite the aircraft having no radar scanning behind the 3-9 line it would still be able to "look" back. Ofc the Mig-29 would have to be close enough so its visual reflection is not blurred by atmospheric disruptions. But just like a surveillance camera can use facial shape to ID a human's real identity, this is effectively the same thing and likely much simpler. In combat this would be the same as a radar lock - if the pilot would like to lob a AIM-9X towards the Mig in the rear, the F-35's fire control system would then be able to present the missile DLZ based on DAS targeting info. A missile DLZ is very helpful in this situation - a missile flying towards the rear will have much less range; it would be very helpful for the pilot to know possible Pk before launch. If you read the following article, it does have missile detection and tracking already. With the newer versions of tail warning radar, you can detect, and identify what type of fighter is tracking you, and this will tell you the kind of aircraft. Rarely do two aircraft have the same radar but might have the same frequency band. In fact, you don't really care what kind of plane is following you, you just want to know if a missile has been fired, what kind and from which direction and is it above you, or below. With that information you should be able to avoid the missile. www.northropgrumman.com/capabilities/anaaq37f35/pages/default.aspx
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2018 16:03:13 GMT -6
If you read the following article, it does have missile detection and tracking already. With the newer versions of tail warning radar, you can detect, and identify what type of fighter is tracking you, and this will tell you the kind of aircraft. Rarely do two aircraft have the same radar but might have the same frequency band. In fact, you don't really care what kind of plane is following you, you just want to know if a missile has been fired, what kind and from which direction and is it above you, or below. With that information you should be able to avoid the missile. www.northropgrumman.com/capabilities/anaaq37f35/pages/default.aspxNot talking about the same thing oldpop ... I'm on missile targeting (offensive) and you're on threat detection (defensive). MAWS (missile approach warning system) is already wide in use... F-15/16/18/A-10 and the lot.
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