Conditional Claims about the War in the Pacific

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Conditional Claims about the War in the Pacific

I’ve always been fascinated by conditional claims. These are alternate possibilities and consequences. They are termed “counterfactual”. I have documents that explain the principles of how intelligence analysts have to use this concept to test theories and provide intelligence to governments. So let’s explore some of these counterfactual claims for the War in the Pacific. Here we go.

1 What if there had never been a Meji Restoration in 1868. In other words, no political revolution which brought down the Tokugawa shogunate and restored imperial rule?

2 What if the Japanese had lost the First Sino-Japanese War. This was the war from 1894-1895 involving Korea.

3. What if the IJN had lost the Battle of Tsushima on 27-28 May 1905. How would the IJN have reacted and the Imperial government?

4. What if there had been no Washington Naval Treaty or the Japanese had not participated in it? How would it have affected their attitude through the interwar period.

Ok, I am going to stop here and see if anyone has any ideas. Remember the RTW games essentially reflect these conditional claims concept. They provide us with a chance to relive and change the way history actually moved.

[oldpop2000]

I believe everyone knows that to build a fleet requires the following natural resources. These would be, simply, Iron ore; oil; coal; copper; rubber; chromium; molybdenum, and manganese, just to name a few. Now, if you don't have these natural resources, you have to import them or.... go get them from a neighbor.

In that vein, here is a section of an article about the Meji Restoration and its eventual results. Once you have read this piece, connect the dots to answer question one, it should be easy.

When the Meiji emperor was restored as head of Japan in 1868, the nation was a militarily weak country, was primarily agricultural, and had little technological development. It was controlled by hundreds of semi-independent feudal lords. The Western powers — Europe and the United States — had forced Japan to sign treaties that limited its control over its own foreign trade and required that crimes concerning foreigners in Japan be tried not in Japanese but in Western courts. When the Meiji period ended, with the death of the emperor in 1912, Japan had

· a highly centralized, bureaucratic government;
· a constitution establishing an elected parliament;
· a well-developed transport and communication system;
· a highly educated population free of feudal class restrictions;
· an established and rapidly growing industrial sector based on the latest technology; and
· a powerful army and navy.

Japan had regained complete control of its foreign trade and legal system, and, by fighting and winning two wars (one of them against a major European power, Russia), it had established full independence and equality in international affairs. In a little more than a generation, Japan had exceeded its goals, and in the process had changed its whole society. Japan's success in modernization has created great interest in why and how it was able to adopt Western political, social, and economic institutions in so short a time.

One answer is found in the Meiji Restoration itself. This political revolution "restored" the emperor to power, but he did not rule directly. He was expected to accept the advice of the group that had overthrown the shôgun, and it was from this group that a small number of ambitious, able, and patriotic young men from the lower ranks of the samurai emerged to take control and establish the new political system. At first, their only strength was that the emperor accepted their advice and several powerful feudal domains provided military support. They moved quickly, however, to build their own military and economic control. By July 1869 the feudal lords had been requested to give up their domains, and in 1871 these domains were abolished and transformed into prefectures of a unified central state.

The feudal lords and the samurai class were offered a yearly stipend, which was later changed to a one-time payment in government bonds. The samurai lost their class privileges, when the government declared all classes to be equal. By 1876 the government banned the wearing of the samurai's swords; the former samurai cut off their top knots in favor of Western-style haircuts and took up jobs in business and the professions.

The armies of each domain were disbanded, and a national army based on universal conscription was created in 1872, requiring three years' military service from all men, samurai and commoner alike. A national land tax system was established that required payment in money instead of rice, which allowed the government to stabilize the national budget. This gave the government money to spend to build up the strength of the nation.