Short answer is no, I don't personally know what the breakdown is.
As far as I know it only happens once per game so not many samples to work with and I've seen a gamut of answers from it actually hurts your progress to no help to a little help to a major breakthrough (lots of RP added but not necessarily actually completing the research technology in that area). I want to say my recollection is it is more likely to be a positive result than not but that is entirely anecdotal and I have no data to be sure.
What doesn't doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Except Submarines. Submarines will kill you. - Unknown Savant
Nothing is impossible if you're not the one who has to do it. - Former CO on USS Hampton SSN-767